Dr. Bruce Jamieson x Dr. Scott Thumlert: Merging Theory and Practice

Bruce Jamieson’s interview with Scott Thumlert revolves around Scott’s career in avalanche research, guiding, as well as planning and engineering. Scott recounts anecdotes during his graduate studies of the stress in the snowpack under skiers and snowmobiles, and implications for tests like the extended column test. He discusses a more recent interest in improving the communication of avalanche likelihood and identifies some challenges in developing a new rating system. One of the challenges is validating the frequency of human-triggered avalanches. Specifically, when human-triggered avalanches are more likely, avalanche practitioners and winter recreationists avoid more avalanche terrain, so the number of avalanches available for validating may not increase as predicted. Scott also outlines the potential role of artificial intelligence in improving avalanche forecasting, but feels manual field work will continue to be needed. With colleagues, Scott is working on hazard mapping projects and related research into the effect of forest fires on extreme avalanche runout and hazard mapping for residential areas. As the chair of the technical committee for the 2026 International Snow Science Workshop, Scott outlines a new strategy – developed by the conference organizers - for merging theory and practice and how they plan to get more practitioners presenting case studies and applied research.  Key InsightsScott’s graduate research focused on measuring the stress in the snowpack exerted by skiers and snowmobiles, highlighting the relationship between stress levels and triggering of slab avalanches.Effective communication of avalanche likelihood remains a challenge, with more ratings needed for lower levels of avalanche likelihood. While there is promise for improved validation of likelihood ratings, human triggering – which is very important – will remain more difficult than validating the frequency (and likelihood) of natural avalanches. Artificial intelligence has the potential to enhance avalanche forecasting by improving data analysis, but Scott feels avalanche practitioners will still be required to verify the forecast. The International Snow Science Workshop aims to merge theory and practice, encouraging practitioners to share real-world case studies and applied research.What motivated Scott to pursue a career in snow and avalanches?Scott’s passion for backcountry skiing and the influence of the ASARC program at the University of Calgary inspired him to apply his engineering background to a variety of topics that currently challenge avalanche practitioners.How does stress in snowpacks relate to avalanche likelihood?Thumlert’s research demonstrated that the stress exerted by skiers and snowmobiles increases with the penetration depth of the skis or snowmobile. He explains how snowpack tests like the Extended Column Test are more indicative of the stress under skiers and snowmobiles when the upper snowpack is soft than when it is hard. What role does artificial intelligence play in avalanche forecasting?AI can enhance forecasting capabilities by analyzing large datasets and improving predictive models, but Scott doubts it will replace the need for field work to verify the forecast.How can practitioners contribute to the International Snow Science Workshop?Practitioners are encouraged to share their experiences through presentations or posters, with support available to help them prepare and present their case studies and findings effectively.Legacy Level: Darren Johnson Avalanche Education Memorial FundAVSSDrone Amplified's MontisPartner Level: CIL AvalancheSafebackEpisode Sponsor: Propagation LabsMusic: KetsaArt: Mike TeaProduction: Bob Keating, Caleb Merrill PeakVisor Code