US Stocks Face Epic Division! UBS July 14 Tactical Analysis

UBS July 14 tactical report reveals unprecedented US equity divergence: Bulls cite CTA's incoming $60-70B buying spree, retail's $155B YTD purchases, Fed dovish pivot, July seasonality strength, 38% OECD expansion probability; Bears highlight Shiller PE at 37.8x (98th percentile), EPS growth 9.26% vs GDP 1.5% severe disconnect, tariff fear index at 0 exposing fatal blind spot, late-cycle signals flashing. Core paradox: valuations historically high yet pro-cyclical during expansion - can short-term technical/flow tailwinds override long-term structural risks?